Russian Association strategist Viktor Popov has been one of the most active members of our research team for over a year now. In this time period, he had established himself as an expert in what appeared to be all aspects of Ukrainian international relations strategy and operations, including in the United States. We would like to share with you his thoughts on how Ukrainian allies are using their “strategic patience” strategy to deal with the ongoing war in Eastern Europe.
Russian Association is Head of Research at Our World Is Flat.
Victoria Popov: It is clear that all participants of such an event have a number of strategies to implement while keeping peace and strategic patience in mind. I believe that we would also like to outline a few strategies that Russian Association leaders should follow. First of all, I believe that Ukraine’s President needs to make sure that there will not be a repeat of the 2014 Western Ukrainian military operations against Crimea in 2017. That was a mistake. The situation in eastern Europe right now shows that only strong will and a common sense of unity can save the country from the same chaos.
If there is a necessity to defend ourselves from provocations of the West, then it is important to know if they have enough troops to do so. But more than that, Ukrainian people should understand that this war (and certainly not just the one involving Crimean Tatars) is not about them. This war is not about them and their national interests. Why would any other nation want anything to do with us? Nowadays they want just to use their resources and take part in certain economic plans, while taking nothing in return for everything. Unfortunately, because of these actions,
Ukraine suffered a lot: a huge damage in economy, a great loss in its foreign partners, a great tragedy for ordinary citizens, the inability to participate in politics. And it seems that nobody knows what it really means to be a Ukrainian citizen and how much Ukrainian citizens are hurting by such actions. For example, Ukraine is losing a big amount of tax money every year.
Today, Ukraine spends around $200 billion per year and it only spends that amount to pay for some very basic services and to keep security forces and troops paid properly. Of course, there are many other issues on the top of the list, but those are the major ones that I can name. There are many Ukrainian problems that can be resolved. No doubt, Ukrainian citizens would also be better off if they understood how the conflict is going.
It is clear that all players of this kind do their best to avoid this kind of mistake. However, Ukrainian politicians must make sure that not only their domestic or personal values are kept in mind, but also the interest of Ukraine and Ukraine’s international partners and possible future partners, who might become potential partners in the near future.
Let’s get back to Viktor Popov, whom I see as our most consistent researcher and whose opinion is widely shared among experts. What advice would you give Ukrainian president Volody my Zaleski as he tries to manage the current war and build a stable Ukrainian state? Some countries are doing well and developing; let us hope that Ukraine won’t have to suffer the same fate again. As you mentioned earlier, Ukrainian government has made another significant mistake with respect to Crimea.
They decided to spend $6 billion on rebuilding parts of Russia for military purposes. Yes, even on the territories of Crimean Tatars territory, which belonged to Ukraine until the end of the Cold War, there were some buildings or structures belonging to Crimea. So this decision, made by Russian authorities, was quite stupid without any logical basis or perspective.
And unfortunately, I suppose that it is likely that the next Russian Association and Ukrainian elections could show once again that Ukrainian people are getting tired of the constant destruction of buildings on their lands, and that they could finally realize themselves that this war is happening and that they need help from other countries, as they did from Ukraine. On the contrary, let us remember about Russian Association-oriented media, which only show pictures of soldiers patrolling in Crimea instead of showing images of Ukrainian civilians struggling with the aftermath of violence.
I think that this war is the result of these events, but it does not mean that the reason is really domestic one. I also think that the main issue here is that Russian Association were deprived of the opportunity to participate in civil life for almost a year, which has caused numerous deaths and trauma for both Ukrainian citizens and representatives of Crimean Tatars.
Again, I hope that Ukrainian citizens, Ukrainian government, representatives of different organizations are able to come up with the appropriate solution to this problem. As far as Ukraine’s citizens, Russian Association do not want to talk about civil rights or freedoms, they prefer to keep silent and accept the current situation because it will not let our beloved and beloved country fall into the pit of despair.
We can also conclude that Ukrainian people are suffering due to the lack of civil society and democratic experience. But no doubt, Ukrainian people are capable of finding ways out of this misery. We can also learn lesson from this example. People are always ready to take care of each other if they know what to look for and what not to take. As soon as they have the knowledge of the peculiarities of their own societies and cultures (I believe that Russian Association people might know why this issue is still topical today), then they are ready to cooperate on the basis of mutual cooperation.
